Friday, October 26, 2012

NFL Breakdown - Steelers vs Redskins - The Nitty Gritty

Redskins vs Steelers - Who You Got?!
I've analyzed the Steelers vs Redskins game every way and sideways. Offense vs Defense from both angles, but every NFL fan knows there are some things that aren't Xs and Os that can decide a football game. THAT is exactly what I am going to be highlighting in the post. Enjoy the 5 story lines that I call the Nitty Grity that will lead to my prediction of the big game at 1pm Sunday.

- Steelers Trying to "Stack" Wins - This seems to be the term the Steelers are using this year when it comes to winning back to back games. Previously, it was that the Steelers couldn't win a road game. Scratch that off the list after the win in Cincinnati vs the Bengals. Next to scratch off the list is winning back to back games. Nothing is guarantee in this league, but with the Steelers playing at home versus a rookie QB the odds are in the Steelers' favor to finally "stack some wins".  Lets be honest though...if the Steelers are going to make a legitimate run at the division, and putting themselves in a situation to guarantee a playoff spot they are going to have to start stringing wins together.  Their next 5 games are as follows: vs Redskins, @ NY Giants, vs Chiefs (MNF), vs Ravens (SNF), @ Browns.  In my opinion, the Steelers need to at least win 3 of those games, but winning 4 would be ideal.  Stringing (or stacking) wins together is what the Steelers need to focus on at this point.

- Home Field Advantage - I've said this earlier on the site, but if you can win all of your home games, and split 4-4 on the road you have yourself a 12-4 record. So far the Steelers have held serve at home and look to continue that trend vs the Redskins this Sunday.  This teams doesn't have the "Road Warriors" look of the 2005 SB Championship team, but that doesn't mean they can't make a game at Heinz Field a win, almost as automatic as a Shaun Suisham FG (this season, not last season).  Some places might be louder than Heinz Field, some might be bigger, and some might have stupid purple seats...but when Renegade starts blaring and the Terrible Towels are waving...there is no comparison to the one and only Heinz Field.  The Big Ketchup Bottle!

- Strengths vs Weaknesses - This game seems to be a true tale of one team's strengths for the opposition's weaknesses.  The Steelers are a passing team against the league's worst passing defense.  The Redskins are a running team that is going against a very average (for Pittsburgh standards) run defense.  Which team will be able to expose the other's weaknesses could wind up being the deciding factor of this game.  This might change this season, but in the past for some reason when the Steelers faced an opponent who had a GLARING weakness, the Steelers would come out doing the opposite.  A team is allowing 200yds rushing a game?  The Steelers would come out throwing it around like nobody's business.  I don't think Todd Haley game plans the same way Bruce Arians did, and I think that is a GOOD thing.  Look for the Steelers to get the upper hand when it comes to the Strengths vs Weaknesses of the opposition.

- Coaching Excellence - This matchup has two star studded coaches going head to head.  Mike Tomlin has been to 2 Superbowls and won 1, and 2 time Superbowl winning coach Mike Shanahan.  This isn't your Shanahan led Broncos though.  This Redskins team is competitive, but Tomlin has the better squad on paper.  Mike Tomlin knows how to push his team's buttons at the right time, and I feel he has the advantage here with this team.  Shanahan is still new when it comes to the Redskins, but Tomlin has already become a fixture in the Steel City.  I give Tomlin the nod in this one.

- Special Teams - Its rare that I put ANY stock into Special Teams.  I just don't think it can be that big of a difference unless you give up a Special Teams TD or miss some FGs.  This year though, I've seen the importance of Special Teams.  First, Shaun Suisham has been extremely solid this season.  He has only missed one kick and it was a 54-yarder on the Thursday night game in Tennessee.  Butler has been a solid punter for the Black n' Gold, but in that same Titan's game his blocked punt turned the tide (I know its not his fault the rusher wasn't even touched on his way to blocking the kick).  Nonetheless, take the kickers out of it and you still have the fact that the Steelers have a very good return game.  Chris Rainey, Emmanuel Sanders, and Antonio Brown are all very dynamic return men who can break any kick that they are able to return.  HOWEVER, the Steelers rarely ever have a return where they aren't penalized.  THAT is what Special Teams is huge.  The Steelers shot themselves in the foot repeatedly the last few games in terms of field position because of penalties.  Tomlin said that repeat offenders could be watching instead of playing...we shall see on Sunday if that improves the unit's play or not.

- PREDICTION -
STEELERS - 37
Redskins - 31

Some might say that there is no way that the Steelers give up 31 points, but if there is a player who can do it, its RGIII.  I'm giving this kid alot of respect, but in my opinion its deserving.  If the Redskins actually had a defense to help Bob Griffin III and the offense, they could be the NFC East champions.  They don't have a good defense and I'm guessing the Steelers exploit that early and often.  Heath Miller will continue his impressive play, and the WR core could see multiple scores. 

You disagree? You think you know? Leave a comment below with YOUR prediction and we will see who's closer...bragging rights on the line (and we are NOT playing the "Price is Right" rules where its closest without going over...haha).

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