Pirates vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 3 Preview

The Black Sea Returns to PNC Park

The Pittsburgh Pirates finally return back to the friendly, okay maybe not so friendly for opposing players, confines of PNC Park.  Some (myself included) have dubbed the venue the "Black Sea" since the players have all requested that there be a "PNC Park Blackout" for every home game the Pirates have during the playoffs.  It creates a distinct advantage to the home team that is not very common in baseball.  Sure, there are raucous crowds in certain venues, but nothing like what was on display last Tuesday when the Reds came into town for a one game playoff.  The Cardinals will be looking to put a sock in the mouths of the Pirates faithful, and it all starts with the pitching matchup.

Pitching Matchup:
PIT - Francisco Liriano - 1-0
STL - Joe Kelly - 0-0

- It has been well documented that Liriano is "money" at PNC Park this season.  He has only lost one game at home, and has shown the dominant stuff that has made him a legitimate vote getter for the NL Cy Young award, even though we all know that is going to be going straight to Clayton Kershaw.  Anyways, with everything known about Liriano at home, its the opposing pitcher that deserves more credit.  Kelly has been a stud since being inserted into the pitching rotation this year, and there is no doubt about that.  A 4 pitch flame thrower, Kelly can get his fastball velocity into the upper 90s while having a nasty curve that he uses often as his "out" pitch.  The Pirates have been vulnerable with "breaking ball" pitchers, and Kelly will look to utilize his great curveball and mediocre slider to take full advantage of the sometimes overly aggressive Pirates hitters and get strikeouts.  If the Pirates want to have success against the Cardinals today, they force Kelly into throwing a lot of pitches, work the counts, and try to get to the Cardinals bullpen as early as possible.

Lineups:
- There won't be many changes in the Pirates or Cardinals lineup.  After all, its the playoffs.  The only changes you might see in the Pirates lineup would be Jordy Mercer and/or Clint Barmes at shortstop.  You also might see an actual lineup change where a player like Justin Morneau could be bumped down in the lineup while someone like Pedro Alvarez takes over the duties of the "clean up" hitter.  Lord knows there are plenty members of "Buc Nation" that are clamoring for Morneau to be moved down in the lineup.  If you ask me, Hurdle won't change a thing.  His team scored 7 runs with that lineup, and he is a manager that simply doesn't make changes just to make changes.  With all that said, the Pirates do hit RHP better than LHP, and Kelly being a righty makes things a little more optimistic, but Bucco fans should be ready for a pitchers duel today...

Intangibles:
- This is where you read the typical "home field advantage" section of most preview articles, but the Pirate have been a different team at home all season, not just the playoffs.  The Pirates have some experience under their belts.  They won't necessarily be "too high" with the thought of hosting a playoff game at PNC Park anymore.  The fans will certainly do their part to keep the Pirates in it, but hopefully those fans don't get flustered if the Cardinals jump out to a 1-0 lead.  The Cardinals will look to silence the crowd the best they can, and that's by dominating.  This is the biggest game of the series, and the Pirates will need all the help they can get.  Some might say the winner of this game has the inside edge on winning the whole series, and to those people I'd say...you are correct.

Prediction:
- I hate predicting baseball games, but if I HAD to, I think the Pirates squeak out a victory in this game.  I'm thinking a 2-1 or 3-2 score.  Its rare when the Pirates face the Cardinals that games are one run games, but this one might be of that variety.